I`ll give it a shot.
Looks like the relevant games coming up on the schedule are:
Lazy vs. Badboyz
Dietze vs. Pitbulls
Rhinos vs. Outcast
Regardless of these games, it looks like the following seeds are locked in:
#6 Wolves
#7 Outcast
#8 Vegas Nights
If the Badboyz and Pitbulls win, the top five seeds should be:
#1 Badboyz (7-1)
#2 Pitbulls (6-2) (H2H tie-break w/ Rhinos)
#3 Rhinos (6-2)
#4 Dietze (5-3) (H2H tie-break w/ Lazy)
#5 Lazy (5-3)
Even if the Rhinos lose to Outcast in the above scenario, they are still the #3 seed since they beat Dietze & Lazy.
If the Badboyz, Rhinos, and Dietze win, the top five seeds should be:
#1 Badboyz (7-1)
#2 Rhinos (6-2) (H2H tie-break w/ Dietze)
#3 Dietze (6-2)
#4 Lazy (5-3) (H2H tie-break w/ Pitbulls)
#5 Pitbulls (5-3)
If the Rhinos lose to Outcast, things get interesting for the #3 seed. In this case, the three teams tied for #3/4/5 are all 1-1 in H2H against each other. Then, it goes to AvPD within the H2H games. In these games, Lazy is +10 (+20 vs. Pitbulls, -10 vs. Rhinos), Pitbulls are -15 (-20 to Lazy, +5 to Rhinos), and Rhinos are +5 (+10 Lazy, -5 Pitbulls).
So if the Badboyz and Dietze win, and Rhinos lose to Outcast, here are the seeds:
#1 Badboyz (7-1)
#2 Dietze (6-2)
#3 Lazy (5-3) (1-1, +10)
#4 Rhinos (5-3) (1-1, +5)
#5 Pitbulls (5-3) (1-1, -15)
Lazy & Pitbulls win, top five seeds:
#1 Lazy (6-2) (H2H 2-1, beat Pitbulls)
#2 Pitbulls (6-2) (H2H 2-1, lost to Lazy)
#3 Badboyz (6-2) (H2H 1-2, beat Rhinos)
#4 Rhinos (6-2) (H2H 1-2, lost to Badboyz)
#5 Dietze (5-3)
In this case, the top four seeds are tied. Then, we look at the records between the tied teams. Lazy & Pitbulls are the top 2, since they are 2-1. Since Lazy beat the Pitbulls, they are the #1 and Pitbulls are the #2. By the same logic, Badboyz are #3 and Rhinos are #4.
Also, even if Rhinos lose to Outcast in the above scenario, they are still the #4 since they beat Dietze. The top three seeds would stay the same (Lazy was 2-0 vs. Pitbulls & Badboyz, Pitbulls were 1-1, Badboyz 0-2).
Lazy & Dietze win, Rhinos beat Outcast, top five seeds:
#1 Badboyz (6-2) (H2H 2-1, beat Rhinos)
#2 Rhinos (6-2) (H2H 2-1, lost to BB)
#3 Dietze (6-2) (H2H 1-2, beat Lazy)
#4 Lazy (6-2) (H2H 1-2, lost to Dietze)
#5 Pitbulls (5-3)
The above scenario follows the same logic as the one before it.
If the Rhinos lost to Outcast (and Lazy & Dietze win):
Badboyz (6-2) (H2H 1-1)
Lazy (6-2) (H2H 1-1)
Dietze (6-2) (H2H 1-1)
#4 Pitbulls (5-3) (beat Rhinos)
#5 Rhinos (5-3) (lost to Pitbulls)
If Lazy & Dietze win and the Rhinos lose to Outcast, the Rhinos drop to the #5 seed since they lost to the Pitbulls. The top three seeds would then be up for grabs since the top three teams would all be 1-1 between each other. In this case it would come down to the H2H point-differential between BB, Lazy, & Dietze, and since Lazy & Badboyz haven`t played, the seeds can`t be determined yet. But, Badboyz beat Dietze by 5, and Dietze beat Lazy by 7. How much Lazy beat BB by would determine the seeds.
This looks like all the possible scenarios & seedings. If anyone sees a mistake, please point it out.
Bottom line is the top five seeds are up for grabs, so everybody better take care of business. |